Where the Top 10 Free Agents May End Up
The long-awaited MLB free agency of 2019 is finally upon us, and pretty much all of the biggest names are still out on the free agent pool.
Honestly, this free agent class likely won’t live up to the hype that was surrounding it over the past few seasons. When the initial idea of this class being “historic” was being pitched to baseball fans, that was under the assumption that many of the prospective players in the class would either opt out of their current contracts, or the players involved would be in the prime of their careers. Players like Clayton Kershaw and Mike Trout, initially thought to be part of this free agent class, ultimately signed extensions that negated the electricity surrounding this offseason. That being said, there are still some huge names in this free agent pool, so let’s speculate on the possible landing spots for the top 10 free agents in the 2019 class.
1. Bryce Harper
It seems like Bryce Harper has had ties to so many teams over the past few seasons that nobody can really be sure of where he will end up. Rumors have swirled that Harper will end up in the Bronx wearing pinstripes, which has been brought back into the light as Harper’s agent Scott Boras has come out and said that Harper has the capabilities to play first base, which is the only major black-hole in the Yankees lineup. I still think that the Phillies are the best fit for Harper long term, as they haven’t invested a huge contact into a player since Ryan Howard. They have the young talent that could be used as a sales pitch to Harper, the cap to pay Harper near the money he is seeking, and a team that will definitely compete for many years to come. Also, with the new signing of Farhan Zaidi as GM, don’t count out the Giants on making an effort to get Harper. The Giants, for some reason, always think they are a free agent signing away from another historic postseason run, but ultimately disappoint pretty much every year. Also look for the Cardinals to make a high-bid on the 26 year old outfielder.
Ultimate destination: Phillies
2. Manny Machado
With Machado’s postseason antics from this past playoff, I would imagine teams would consider all the negatives that come with signing a Manny Machado type player. Yes, in terms of talent, Machado is one of the young superstars in the game. He’s going to hit over .280 with 30 home runs pretty much every year, and give you solid (yet overrated) defense at shortstop. He stays healthy and is a model of consistency, but I think teams will want nothing to do with his dirty style of play, and lack of hustle. Obviously the Yankees have been in ties with Machado for years, and it seems that he will want to play in New York (where he will get absolutely killed by the New York media). The Yankees, though, have been pretty public on their disapproval of Machado’s postseason antics. Similar to Harper, the Phillies should be in on Machado too, as J.P. Crawford has never taken the step forward at shortstop that they intended. He would also fit right in with the Phillies culture of nose-to-the-grindstone, physical style of play that may rub people the wrong way (I'm talking to you, Chase Utley). Also look for the Diamondbacks to be in play on Machado, as their shortstop position has severely lacked in offensive production for the past few seasons, with Nick Ahmed playing a good shortstop but offering pretty much nothing with the bat.
Ultimate destination: Yankees
3. Patrick Corbin
Corbin went out this past season, a couple years removed from Tommy John surgery and showed that he wanted a big contract. He pitched 200 innings with a 3.15 ERA and 246 strikeouts, and likely would be in Cy Young conversations had the NL not had three of the best pitching seasons in recent memory with deGrom, Scherzer and Nola. Was 2018 an aberration for Corbin? Probably, but he has had good seasons before and teams will definitely be interested. The Brewers should definitely be in play on Corbin, as they were pretty much a good starting pitcher away from the world series this past season. With a fairly young rotation who need that ace-type pitcher, the Brewers offense should be a good enough sales pitch to sign Corbin. The Cardinals should be in play as well, with Carlos Martinez being moved to the bullpen and young pitchers Jack Flaherty, Alex Reyes and Luke Weaver, it only makes sense for Corbin to headline a young, talented rotation to make a playoff run in St. Louis. Also expect teams like the Yankees who lack consistency in the rotation and the young Reds to be in play on Corbin.
Ultimate destination: Cardinals
4. Michael Brantley
Michael Brantley, when healthy, has been one of the most consistent and best overall outfielders in baseball over the past 5 seasons. He is virtually a lock to hit .300 with 15-20 home runs, but his injury history is something teams will have to take into account when deciding whether to shell out an $100 million or more deal to the 31 year old. I could definitely see the Braves making a push to get Brantley, as he would be an impact veteran for a team filled with young talent, and likely take the role that Nick Markakis will be leaving with his exit from Atlanta. The Indians should also look at bringing Brantley back, as they may be on the decline amidst the top of the American League with the dynasties being created in the Astros, Yankees and Red Sox. Also look for the Mariners to be in on Brantley, as their outfield is weaker than it may seem, with Mitch Haniger being the only standout name.
Ultimate destination: Indians
5. A.J. Pollock
Similar to Michael Brantley, A.J. Pollock’s inability to stay on the field for an entire season can definitely reduce the likeliness of him receiving some sort of a mega-deal this offseason. When on the field, however, Pollock is a true 5-tool player who displays power and speed, which should keep interest despite his lack of games played. The Mets should definitely be making a play on Pollock under new G.M. Brodie Van Wagenen, where outfield health has been very poor for the Mets over the past few seasons. This may seem counterintuitive, but an outfield rotation of Pollock, Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo among others would give needed rest to the outfielders through scheduled days off. The only other players that I could see in on Pollock would be the Giants, who’s inexperienced outfield could benefit from having a professional like Pollock, or a return to the Diamondbacks as he has obviously been a fit there for a long time.
Ultimate destination: Mets
6. Josh Donaldson
Coming off an injury-riddled season, Donaldson is not the same player that he was in 2015 when he won the American League MVP. He’s missed significant time over the past two seasons with injury, this past year playing in just 52 games. However, Donaldson still offers above-average defense at third base with a big time power bat, as even in 113 games in 2017 he put together 33 home runs and 78 RBI’s. Like Pollock, the Mets should be a big player in on Donaldson as their third base situation does not look appealing with Todd Frazier manning the hot corner currently. Power was scarce for the Mets this past season, and Donaldson would be a big upgrade in the Big Apple. The Cardinals will be in on Donaldson too, as they’ve been linked to his name in trades over the past two seasons and he would be a step up from Jedd Gyorko. It’ll also be interesting whether a team like the Rays, who have held off of spending large amounts of money since the Evan Longoria contract and trade of Chris Archer, get involved to solidify third base on what is an extremely young but talented team
Ultimate destination: Cardinals
7. Dallas Keuchel
The big question surrounding Keuchel is whether or not he will regain the Cy Young form that he found in 2015. Likely, those microscopic ERA days are behind Keuchel, but when healthy he has been very good, borderline dominant with the mix of pitches he features. The Astros should certainly consider bringing Keuchel back, as he has been in the picture for them since long before they were a competitive ball club, and he gives stability to a rotation that is lacking a left-handed starter. With the recent news that Lance McCullers’ 2019 is over because of Tommy John surgery and Charlie Morton hitting free agency, I think a reunion is quite possible for Keuchel and the Astros. Another team that I imagine will be pushing hard for Keuchel is the Yankees, but the Yankees will likely be looking at a cheaper option in the rotation, where a re-signing of JA Happ should be anticipated. Also, don’t count out the Mariners, Angels or Brewers on making a big offer to Keuchel. All of those teams are looking for stability in their rotations, and Keuchel would be a good fit in any of them.
Ultimate destination: Astros
8. Craig Kimbrel
Kimbrel has been long-considered one of, if not the best closer in baseball, and the contract that he is seeking is one that reflects that. Kimbrel’s agent David Meter has come out and called Kimbrel the “greatest closer of all time,” which is just wildly inaccurate, but dictates that he feels Kimbrel should get money we haven’t seen on the closers market yet. With the adaptation of bullpenning, Kimbrel may get a pretty penny, but I don’t see him making over $80 million simply because his production has wavered these past couple years, and his lackluster performance this postseason supports that narrative. The Red Sox should be in play on resigning Kimbrel, but likely Boston will not be where he is once the 2019 season starts. I could see the Phillies making a push for Kimbrel, as neither Hector Neris or Pat Neshek offer stability as the closer. The Mets are in the market for a big time reliever, and could offer Kimbrel a deal that he may see fit, but it won’t be for the length of time he is expecting. I think the best opportunity is in Atlanta, as a return to the Braves would be good for Kimbrel who thrived there for the first half of his career. They also need a true closer, as A.J. Minter profiles best as a set up man with a supplementary style to that of Kimbrel. The Angels also may be in on a premier reliever.
Ultimate destination: Braves
9. Yasmani Grandal
Grandal has been a solid defense, consistent power bat at the catcher position since arriving to the Dodgers in 2015. The switch hitter, just 29, could expect a bigger deal from a team who is in dire need of a catcher, as his experience catching a good pitching staff in Los Angeles can help a young pitching staff reach their peak potential. It also helps that he is bilingual, with the large number of Hispanic baseball players in the Major Leagues today. The Mets should certainly be in on Grandal, as he would profile well in that lineup, with the Mets current revolving door of sub-par catchers they continue to throw out on the field every day. The Diamondbacks should look at Grandal as well, as he has been in the NL West his entire career and is familiar with the division. A team on the verge of losing A.J. Pollock should be interested in a 20 homer power bat at a position which they need help. The Dodgers will also likely tender Grandal a contract if he rejects the $17.9 million qualifying offer they extended to him. The Twins are in the mix for a catcher as well.
Ultimate destination: Mets
10. Mike Moustakas
Moustakas was a product of an unfortunate offseason last year, when he initially hit free agency and did not get offered any type of significant deal. A one-year deal with the Royals turned into a stint with the Brewers, where the Moose played a major role in helping the Brew Crew come within one win of reaching the World Series. This offseason, Moustakas is almost guaranteed to get paid due to teams looking at cheaper options of impact players instead of trying to go get Bryce Harper or Manny Machado. This actually boosts Moustakas’ value on the open market, as his 28 home runs and 95 RBI’s are quite valuable to low-scoring offenses. He is also just 30, so he can very well strike at least a 5 year deal with someone desperate for a third baseman. The White Sox could make a play on Moustakas, where their third base position has been pretty much dismal since Todd Frazier bid farewell to the franchise. Their up-and-coming offense can be enticing to Moustakas as well, where he can be a middle-of-the-lineup bat that does damage in the AL Central, where he is already familiar. The Pirates may be in the market for a third baseman, as Colin Moran hasn’t exactly set the world on fire since his promotion to the big leagues, but it remains to be seen which directions the Pirates choose to go in. Also, as previously stated, the Mets should be in the market for a third baseman and could use an impact bat like Moustakas. The Cardinals and Padres may also be in on Moustakas.
Ultimate destination: White Sox